A New Age in Gainesville Ultimate Draft Writeups

In the last decades, advanced statistical models have revolutionized sports analysis and allowed pundits, team managers and gambling odds-makers to predict team performance with unprecedented accuracy. However, for some reason, Gainesville ultimate league has lagged behind. That changes today. Behold, the Gainesville Ultimate Frisbee Draft Strength Index (GUFDSItm). This one-of-a-kind, visionary advanced statistic predicts relative team strength using a highly complex, theoretical model based on objective data derived from the Gainesville draft, combined with heuristically derived, ordinal noncontinuous player power ratings. Big numbers are better than small numbers. Super scientific. Here we go.

8th) Devon & Jaylynne: GUFDSI = 0.

First, shout out to Jaylynne and Devon for volunteering to draft the day of with zero prep so that we could switch to 8 teams and get some playing time. Despite their last place ranking, this is a good team that will certainly finish better than 8th in the regular season. They won the draft lottery to get Billy O’Bryan with the first pick and also drafted possibly the best female combo of any team (Naomi, Jaylynne, Rosie and Jenna). Unfortunately, Naomi will be gone for the tournament, and the team took a big hit in the GUFDS for missing that early draft pick. This team also has a lot of youth, so they could break expectations as players improve with the season.

Strengths: Female matchups. Apparently Billy throws 350 practice throws a day, wtf. Got arguably the best Rudloff in the draft. Skool’s steadying veteran presence

Weaknesses: Female tournament numbers, guy height, hard to play with faces covered in pie.

7th) Alek & Aiden: GUFDSI = 1.

Another captain pair that stepped up to draft with no prep. While they won the first round of the draft by picking the most powerful power couple, I got the sense at the draft that Alek and Aiden weren’t sure who most of the people on the board were. Of course, the other captains all stepped up and helped… I expect a patient offense punctuated by Travaglini hucks when their attendance is good but some offensive struggles when they’re out.

Strengths: Alek (and Tommy) have experience with keeping a team fun and competitive, Dustin’s pinpoint accurate high-power throws, Kate Travaglini’s everything.

Weaknesses: Danny Gallagher’s literal Achilles heel, Dustin’s pinpoint accurate high-power throws hurt, Ethan and Landon Travaglini.

6th) Shea & Jia: GUFDSI = 29.

This is a solid team but had a number of late round picks that were unfamiliar and unrated, which hurt their GUFDSI. They have a good set of handlers/cutters/hybrids that will give them a lot of options on the field. They’re success this season will likely depend on how well Steven, Max, Gia and Clyde synergize as handlers.

Strengths: Flick hucks, Austin Norden’s defensive energy, Shea’s luscious locks.

Weaknesses: Backhand hucks, Austin Norden’s DEFENSIVE ENERGY!!!, Dave Klinges attendance (life’s about more than just frogs, Dave).

5th) Joe & Billy: GUFDSI = 32.

After doing surprisingly well by just squinting at the board and going with his gut at the last draft, Joe and Billy came to this prepared with a spreadsheet. Unfortunately, the GUFDSI indicates Joe’s gut may have beaten the spreadsheet. This is a balanced team with really solid female players. However, like Devon and Jaylynne, they forgot to draft anyone over 6’, and I suspect they will find themselves losing a lot of 50/50s.

Strengths: Joe’s flick power, female defense, Billy defense, got arguably one of the best Rudloff’s in the draft.

Weaknesses: Joe’s flick accuracy, Zone offense, Jack Clydesdale.

4th) Jeff & Ben: GUFDSI = 48.

This team came out of the gate guns blazing at the draft. Baghya, Jack, Josh and Drew are 4 guys who could have all gone in the first round in recent seasons. Baghya is already the most well-rounded player in Gainesville and he can’t even drink yet. They also drafted some solid female talent that may be even better if Quinn Kahle turns out to be a secret club player. In most recent seasons, this team would be the preseason favorite. But this is a really deep season.

Strengths: Winning 50/50s, person offense, Jeff chooses which field they play on.

Weaknesses: Josh’s Knee, Jenny’s Knee, Drew’s Achilles, Jack Clydesdale only plays against Joe and Billy.

3rd) Nathan & Chris: GUFDSI = 87.

Nathan and Chris drafted a really solid, young team that will be a nightmare on defense. All their girls are athletic and still improving. Omie is the tallest female handler I’ve ever seen. Improbably, they got the exact same score on the GUFDSI as Zach and Michelle. I gave Zach and Michelle the advantage as defending champs, but it’s really a pick’em.

Strengths: Youth, layouts, person defense, captain hair game.

Weaknesses: Youth, zone offense, Brad’s knees, Nathan will let you win if you just ask him really nicely.

2nd) Zach & Michelle: GUFDSI = 87.

The defending champions are going to have another strong season. This team, on the guy side, is essentially the opposite of Nathan and Chris’. Zach and Michelle drafted a lot of talent from top to bottom but may be a little too old-wily-veteran-handler heavy if that’s possible. This is balanced by a ridiculous amount of female height with Michelle falling below the average at 5’10”. Expect a lot of consistent, small-ball offense from the handlers punctuated by hammers and blades that take advantage of poaches and big shots to the women.

Strengths: Zone offense, zone defense, female height, Zach wants to win more than you.

Weaknesses: Man defense (not woman defense). Zach’s spirit is willing, but the body is weak and crampy. Jared’s shoulder, Jared’s knees, Jared’s…

1st) Ben & Matt: GUFDSI = 174.

You’ll never guess who came up with the GUFDSI… Seriously though, this team has a lot of overlap with Ben & Matt’s last team that ran away with the title two summers ago, and Ben has two working hands this time. Really, Mike Arbutine was just holding them back, so expect this team to be a lot better without him.

Strengths: Depth, Luke is the fastest cutter in Gainesville, Ben may want to win more than Zach.

Weaknesses: Luke will probably want to handle instead of cut, Ben will probably be injured, Bonnie’s uterus, Ben and Matt have never won a league without Jim Davis.


As a special bonus, here are some preseason superlative predictions without explanation. Why not?


Male Matching:


Steal of the draft: TK Kubisek

Runners up: Brad Nelson, Nic Bainter


Most improved: Harin Patel

Runners up: Vander Kubisek, Howard Le


Best Offensive Player: Dustin Travaglini

Runners up: Joe Fleury, Billy O’Bryan


Best Defensive Player: Billy Field

Runners up: Jack Clydesdale, Matt Henry


Coolest Play: Jack Clydesdale

Runners up: Nathan Schaller, Patrick Gettino


Rookie MVP: I don’t know these guys. Adam Davis or Beckett Baldwin maybe?


Female Matching:


Steal of the draft: Quinn Kahle

Runners up: Ava DuBose, Andrea Torvinen


Most improved: Jemima Tolentino

Runners up: Hannah Palka, Jenna Petty


Best Offensive Player: Kate Travaglini

Runners up: Jaylynne Hocutt, Jenny Nguy


Best Defensive Player: Naomi Anderson

Runners up: Kate Travaglini, Ellie Thomsen


Coolest Play: Naomi Anderson

Runners up: Kate Travaglini, Jia Johnson


Rookie MVP: Naomi Anderson

Runners up: Omie Coyne, Quinn Kahle

2 thoughts on “A New Age in Gainesville Ultimate Draft Writeups

  1. Peter Brand, please describe your GUFDSI system in detail and justify your methodology. Thanks!

    1. Sure. In brief, it’s sum(team draft position – expected draft position). Then the total for the team with the lowest GUFDSI was subtracted from each team score to make zero the lowest GUFDSI.

      How did I calculate expected draft position? That’s proprietary.

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