Reading the Pre-Season Blurb (https://gnvulty.com/2023-spring-league-predictions) about my team was honestly a bit offensive. Jessica and Nathan were two of the best scorers last season. That combined with a solid handler core makes the last place ranking feel a little bit unwarranted. There was one part that was a little confusing. Who is this TK guy and why am I ignoring him. During the preseason I struck up a conversation with him about offensive philosophy. I found some common ground. We both hate turning the disc over. We both think hucks can sometimes be stupid. But here’s the rub, TK seems to think that a huck is almost always a bad throw, and he’s wrong.
Why TK is Wrong
Flipping a coin three times in a row and landing heads all three times is harder than rolling a six on a dice. The probability is trivial to calculate. Assuming a 50/50 shot, the coin flip is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/8 Whereas the probability of rolling a dice and landing a 6 is 1/6.
Applied to Hucking
Hucks are not a high percentage throw. However, they almost always lead to a score making them a high value throw. Let’s just say for the sake of argument that a huck always scores. Let’s also say that it takes six high percentage throws to score with a 90% completion percentage. What is the chance of scoring with high percentage throws? .9^6 = .53. A huck only needs a completion percentage of 54% to be just as good as the low percentage throw. So far our team has completed at least 100% of our hucks. Meaning that we should almost always be hucking it.
I wrote this blurb, but can’t help but wonder how relevant it is as I recall when TK called a three man weave. I sat on the equivalent of a field sideline and watched him effortlessly tear up a defense saying things like, “Don’t cut we need space.” Maybe it’s best if I let the adults do the scoring.