GUFDSI is back! Fall league 2024 preseason predictions

I don’t see a draft write-up yet. This makes me sad. So, here you go.

The Gainesville Ultimate Frisbee Draft Strength Index (GUFDSI^tm) is back! For those unfamiliar, this is a one-of-a-kind, visionary advanced statistic that predicts relative team strength using a highly complex, theoretical model based on objective data derived from the Gainesville draft, combined with heuristically derived, ordinal noncontinuous player power ratings. TLDR: Small numbers better than big.

Disclaimer, I did not take attendance into account, and the GUFDSI assumes any player I don’t know is terrible.

6) Jenna and Evan: GUFDSI = 509; GUFDSI starting 7 = 116

Someone has to be last. And, honestly, there’s a good chance this team isn’t it. The margin between the bottom three teams is thin. But… Getting old sucks. And, while Plant seems to remain ageless, that’s not how it works for most people. They have plenty of handlers, and this team will be fine if it’s windy and/or they don’t turn over the disc. But, they will struggle to keep up on person defense.

How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Sam starts trying at league. Time ceases to be linear.

5) Jemima and Pat: GUFDSI = 495; GUFDSI starting 7 = 93

Jemima and Pat have a strong starting 7 with a good balance of cutters and handlers who can play defense. They should do well when that group is on the field. But, they also drafted the most players I don’t know. So, unless those players all turn out to be secret vets, this team may run into trouble.

How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Joe’s hucks are accurate. Stephen shows up. As commissioner, Pat could always just declare his team the winner.

4) Jenny, Danny and Matt: GUFDSI = 479; GUFDSI starting 7 = 113

This team is the biggest wildcard in the draft, and I wouldn’t be surprised by them getting first or last. They won the Travaglini lottery and filled in with plenty of solid veterans. But, they are short on tall, fast cutters and will also likely struggle on person defense. This team can succeed with small-ball, but expect Dustin to get bored and take shots.

How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Danny is back to full speed. Kate and Dustin show up. The 5 players I don’t know all turn out to be tall, fast cutters.

3) Nathan and Jared: GUFDSI = 443; GUFDSI starting 7 = 102

This is essentially the opposite of Jenna and Evan’s team. I think they forgot that Jared isn’t actually playing when they drafted. They will be killer on defense, and they have some big cutting targets, but they forgot to draft handlers. While they have some players who can put a disc, and plenty who can catch it, I think they will struggle with small-ball against wind and zones.

How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Kevin Switzer is fully healthy. Jack actually shows up. Young people continue to get better at frisbee (unlikely).

2) Zach and Michelle: GUFDSI = 438; GUFDSI starting 7 = 83

Yeah, this is the oldest team. Yeah, their joints are wearing out and a lot of them can’t really play man defense. I forgot my point. Well, they have the best top to bottom FMPs, lots of height and consistent throwers. They will have the strongest zone of any team and, with a few young players sprinkled in, not the worst person defense. And Zach and Ben are due. It’s been a whole season since either of them won league.

How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Targeted steroid injections. Zach and Ben shed last traces of humanity and start REALLY trying at league.

1) Jaylynne and Drew: GUFDSI = 438; GUFDSI starting 7 = 61

This team probably shouldn’t exist. It came about because of some incredible pairs as well as some huge late picks (looking at Jacob for steal of the draft). Fast cutters, great defenders, handlers with big throws, multiple FMPs who can compete at the world level. If attendance is good, this team will run the competition into the ground.

Since they’re already in the driver’s seat…

How this team could underperform the GUFDSI: League attendance surveys are accurate. Naomi and/or Jaylynne don’t show up. Drew takes all the hucks instead of Adub.

So, what do you think? Highly accurate or ridiculously accurate? I like reading these things more than writing them, so lets see some more predictions.

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