Alright, better late than never, time for round three of the Gainesville Ultimate Frisbee Draft Strength Index (GUFDSItm). For those unfamiliar, this is a one-of-a-kind, visionary advanced statistic that predicts relative team strength using a highly complex, theoretical model based on objective data derived from the Gainesville draft, combined with heuristically derived, ordinal noncontinuous player power rankings. GUFDSI is a rating of the whole team, while GUFDSI starting 7 represents a rating of the top 7 players. TLDR: Small numbers better than big.
Disclaimer: I did not take attendance and other nonsense like busted knees, mushy ankles or broken collar bones into account. And the GUFDSI assumes any player I don’t know is terrible, which is probably not always true, since I don’t know many people. Also, this was the most even draft I’ve seen. So, while people always say platitudes like, “anyone could win” just to make everyone feel better, this time I really mean it.
Claimer: GUFDSI is two for two in predicting league winners and not too shabby at predicting the rest of the final standings either. Check out past articles to confirm, they’re well worth the read (read)!
6) Tessa & Shea: GUFDSI = 48.44; GUFDSI starting 7 = 25.14
Like I said above, this was a tight draft, with only 4 GUFDSI points (really, only 4 GUFDSI points, that’s crazy, not a lot of GUFDSI points, you know!) separating first and last. Everyone’s still in the hunt. But someone has to be last. This team has plenty of handling power on both the men’s and women’s side. And their cutting core led, by Plant, will certainly be hard to defend downfield. On offense, they should be fine. But, unfortunately, frisbee isn’t just offense. Sometimes you turn the disc. Especially in winter league. While they should be fine on the women’s side, I don’t see a lot of defensive energy on the guy side past Plant and… maybe Sam if he’s trying that day? To be fair, though, the GUFDSI made the same prediction about a team with Fletcher, Bobroff, Shea, Sam, and Plant (damn, that’s a lot of overlap…) last year and they ended up having a great regular season.
How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Hucks to Omie. Sam quits disc golf, devotes all of frisbee passion to winter league. Shea’s knee heals back even better, giving him superspeed, ala “Rookie of the Year”.
5) Jenna & Nathan: GUFDSI = 46.94; GUFDSI starting 7 = 24.57
Alright, I anticipate some controversy on this pick. But, I have to remind you, the gap between teams is razor thin this season. These next 3 teams could almost go in any order. But, Jenna and Nathan’s team came out just behind. This is honestly a solid team. Plenty of players who can handle, plenty who can play defense. Carsten and Josh are both first rounders, their middle-round drafts are all solid, and Naomi is going to be an impossible matchup for anyone in the league whose name doesn’t rhyme with “Gravel Weenie”. This team has a lot of players who will make big throws and big, exciting plays. But, unfortunately, big plays come with big risk, and boring ultimate wins leagues. I think this team will be capable of beating any team on any given week, but they may end up a victim of “too many cooks in the kitchen”.
How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Naomi attends games. Team runs entire offense through Milan, then he shamelessly calls an injury for any turnover. Reading this analysis changes how people play frisbee (unlikely).
4) Joe & Ellie: GUFDSI = 46.38; GUFDSI starting 7 = 21.43
I could write a very similar report on this team to the last. Lots of good handlers (Jared, Joe and Stephen on the same team taking like half of the league’s forehand and hammer power), good receiver targets. Maybe a few too many cooks. But this team took the edge when they got the Switzers with a late steal. Carson has been improving rapidly (puberty is good for something I guess) while Kevin has managed not to fall off the 40s cliff (or 30s cliff… or 20s cliff, which gets most of us). On the women’s side, Ellie and Lucia are both top matchups who are still rapidly improving. This team has the youngest women and should be difficult to keep up with for a whole game, especially on double-header weeks.
How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Joe’s hucks are accurate. Stephen shows up. (cool, these still work from last season, keeping them). Kevin Switzer tricks the other teams into thinking he will huck to someone besides Carson, allowing him to huck more successfully to Carson. Lucia doesn’t tell the team day-of that she has to miss league finals for Easter prep.
3) Liz & Evan: GUFDSI = 46.31; GUFDSI starting 7 = 24.14
This team started with the tallest lady in league (I think? Can we have Omie and Liz stand back to back? It’s important to know for sure.), won the Travaglini lottery and followed that up with Jemima and Abbie who were steals in their rounds, giving them the strongest lady set in league. On the guy side, they have plenty of offensive firepower as well. And some great defenders (e.g. Pat, Buenrostro). But, while Liz is certainly tall, and they have some tall handlers, on the guy’s side, this team came up a little… short on deep options. This team could make up for it by isolating its ladies/playing “small” ball. But I don’t think Dustin will be able to stop himself from taking shots. And this team will struggle on 50/50s.
How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Convince other team to play 4:3 gender ratio. Buenrostro and Danny stand up extra straight, prove me wrong. David Mills hits the afterburners, going from handler to deep target. Kate and Dustin abandon children, correctly prioritize winter league attendance.
*2) Ben & Jacob & Bonnie: GUFDSI = 44.41; GUFDSI starting 7 = 19.71
Yeah, this is a bold prediction, putting Ben and Bonnie’s team in second. Afterall, by law, they win every other time they captain. They’re due. And Jacob is coming off a win of his own. So, I’m putting an asterisk on this. I think Ben/Jacob/Bonnie get second in the regular season but first in the tournament. As for some actual analysis… defense wins championships, and, on the men’s side, this team is loaded with young, fast defensive talent. And Coley is hungry to prove he’s just as good (better?) without Adub throwing to him. Look for this team to get loads of D’s and quickly capitalize with shots at the endzone. On the women’s side, I don’t know if the words “young, fast defensive talent” apply (they certainly don’t apply to me, so I think I’m allowed to say this), but there are some advantages to getting older, and all four women can handle and make consistent plays on offense and know how to correctly manage the field in a zone, or, more likely, poachy person defense. Look for other teams to get burnt trying to poach off this team’s ladies.
How this team could outperform the GUFDSI: Coley really is better without Adub. Jess runs weekly sprint training, turns entire team into fast defensive talent. Alek comes clean about fake “super-secret defense contract” (good cover) and stops using it as an excuse to go to Japan to satisfy his dolphin hunting addiction.
1) Zach & Michelle: GUFDSI = 44.19; GUFDSI starting 7 = 21.29
Well, it’s been a minute since Zach won league. His every other streak is snapped and he’s gone a whole 2 seasons without a championship. Although I tagged Ben/Jacob/Bonnie’s team to take the tournament, this team should take the regular season and will almost certainly be in the finals with a shot. This team has lots of strong, consistent throwers on the guys and ladies side, and the Brad/Nic pair was a steal that shot up their GUFDSI. While this team may not be as defensively strong (in person defense) as some others, I expect their consistent offense and strong zone will lead to a lot of wins.
Since they’re already in the driver’s seat…
How this team could underperform the GUFDSI: No wind for zones. Nic’s ankle stays “mushy” and Karl’s collarbone stays “broken” (sure Karl, we all know what you’re doing). We do a three game tournament, ensuring Zach’s legs cramp. Adub gets confused, continues to only throw to Coley.
So, what do you think? Highly accurate or ridiculously accurate? I like reading these things more than writing them, so lets see some more predictions.